Tuam Tshoj txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kev xa tawm yuav tsum tau qis qis hauv lub quarter thib ob ntawm lub xyoo no, raws li Tuam Tshoj Kev Lag Luam thiab Nyiaj Txiag Outlook Tshaj Tawm Tshaj Tawm los ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Tshawb Fawb ntawm Bank of China."Ua ua ke, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev xa tawm poob qis yuav tsum nqaim mus txog 4 feem pua ​​​​hauv lub quarter thib ob."“Daim ntawv tshaj tawm hais tias.
Raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kev xa tawm yuav nyob twj ywm tsis muaj zog hauv 2023 vim qhov kev hloov pauv tsis tu ncua ntawm lub ntiaj teb kev nom kev tswv thiab kev lag luam toj roob hauv pes, sluggish txawv teb chaws xav tau, tsis muaj zog txhawb tus nqi thiab lub hauv paus siab nyob rau hauv 2022. Tuam Tshoj cov khoom xa tawm poob 6.8 feem pua ​​​​hauv cov ntsiab lus ntawm nyiaj daus las. Lub Ib Hlis thiab Lub Ob Hlis los ntawm ib xyoo dhau los.
Los ntawm kev xav ntawm cov neeg lag luam loj, qhov sib txawv ntawm kev sib txawv hauv Suav teb kev lag luam txawv teb chaws tau nce.Txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Ob Hlis 2023, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom xa tawm mus rau Tebchaws Meskas txuas ntxiv tsis zoo, nqis 21.8% xyoo rau xyoo, uas yog 2.3 feem pua ​​​​cov ntsiab lus loj dua li lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022. Kev xa tawm mus rau European Union thiab Nyij Pooj tau poob qis me ntsis, tab sis qhov kev loj hlob. tseem tsis hloov qhov zoo, feem -12.2% thiab -1.3%.Kev xa tawm mus rau ASEAN tau loj hlob sai, nce 1.5 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus xyoo-rau-xyoo mus rau 9% txij lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov qauv khoom, kev xa tawm ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab tsheb yog siab, thaum lub sij hawm xa tawm ntawm cov khoom siv zog ua haujlwm tseem poob qis.Txij Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Ob Hlis 2023, kev xa tawm ntawm cov khoom siv roj ua kom zoo thiab cov khoom siv hlau tau nce 101.8% thiab 27.5%, feem.Kev loj hlob ntawm lub xyoo ntawm lub tsheb thiab chassis thiab tsheb qhov chaw yog 65.2% thiab 4%, feem.Tus naj npawb ntawm cov tsheb xa tawm (370,000 units) tau mus txog cov ntaub ntawv siab, nce 68.2 feem pua ​​​​ntawm ib xyoo, ua rau kwv yees li 60.3 feem pua ​​​​rau kev loj hlob ntawm tsheb xa tawm tus nqi.
Raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom, kev xa tawm cov rooj tog zaum, cov khoom ua si, yas, khau thiab khaub ncaws cov khoom lag luam tseem poob qis, vim tias kev lag luam tsim nyob hauv Europe thiab Tebchaws Meskas muaj cov neeg siv khoom tsis muaj zog, cov khoom lag luam destocking lub voj voog tseem tsis tau xaus, thiab cov teb chaws tsim khoom xws li raws li Nyab Laj, Mexico thiab Is Nrias teb tau coj ib feem ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov khoom xa tawm hauv cov haujlwm siv zog ua haujlwm.Lawv tau nqis los ntawm 17.2%, 10.1%, 9.7%, 11.6% thiab 14.7%, uas yog 2.6, 0.7, 7, 13.8 thiab 4.4 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus siab dua thaum lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022, feem.
Tab sis Tuam Tshoj txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kev xa tawm tau zoo dua li qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam, nrog kev poob qis los ntawm 3.1 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus txij lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022. Raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom, cov laj thawj tseem ceeb ntawm cov xwm txheej saum toj no yog raws li hauv qab no:
Ua ntej, kev thov thoob ntiaj teb zoo dua li qhov xav tau.Thaum US ISM tsim PMI tseem nyob hauv thaj chaw cog lus thaum Lub Ob Hlis, nws tau nce 0.3 feem pua ​​​​ntawm lub Ib Hlis mus rau 47.7 feem pua, thawj qhov kev txhim kho hauv rau lub hlis.Kev ntseeg siab ntawm cov neeg siv khoom kuj tau txhim kho hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Nyij Pooj.Los ntawm qhov ntsuas tus nqi thauj khoom, txij li nruab nrab Lub Ob Hlis, Baltic qhuav bulk Performance index (BDI), ntug hiav txwv thawv shipping nqi Performance index (TDOI) pib hauv qab.Qhov thib ob, tom qab hnub so rov pib ua haujlwm thiab kev tsim khoom hauv Suav teb tau nrawm dua, thaiv cov ntsiab lus hauv cov saw hlau thiab cov khoom siv tau raug tshem tawm, thiab cov khoom lag luam rov qab ntawm kev txiav txim thaum lub sijhawm muaj kev sib kis tau tshaj tawm, muab qee yam kev txhawb nqa rau kev xa tawm. kev loj hlob.Thib peb, cov ntaub ntawv tshiab ntawm kev lag luam txawv teb chaws tau dhau los ua lub zog tseem ceeb rau kev loj hlob ntawm kev xa tawm.Kev lag luam e-lag luam hla ciam teb hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2023 tau siab dua li ntawm tib lub sijhawm xyoo 2022, thiab kev lag luam ntim ntawm Zhejiang, Shandong, Shenzhen thiab lwm thaj chaw ua lag luam hauv kev tsim cov ntawv luam tawm txawv teb chaws tshiab feem ntau muaj kev lag luam. kev loj hlob zoo ib xyoos ib zaug.Ntawm lawv, kev xa tawm ntim ntawm hla ciam teb e-lag luam hauv Zhejiang txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Ob Hlis tau nce 73.2% xyoo-rau-xyoo.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm ntseeg tias Tuam Tshoj txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kev xa tawm yuav tsum tau qis dua hauv lub quarter thib ob, cov txheej txheem tsim nyog yuav tsum tau them rau.Los ntawm kev rub tawm, kev kho sab nraud muaj qhov tsis paub tseeb.Kev nce nyiaj thoob ntiaj teb tseem nyob siab thiab muaj qhov tshwm sim siab uas cov kev lag luam nce qib hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Tebchaws Meskas yuav nce cov paj laum hauv "cov kauj ruam me me" hauv thawj ib nrab xyoo 2023, ua rau muaj kev xav tau thoob ntiaj teb.Lub voj voog destocking ntawm cov teb chaws loj loj tseem tsis tau xaus, thiab cov khoom muag-muag piv ntawm cov khoom muag feem ntau hauv Tebchaws Meskas tseem nyob ntawm ntau tshaj 1.5, qhia tias tsis muaj kev txhim kho tseem ceeb piv nrog rau qhov kawg ntawm 2022. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm Lub sijhawm xyoo 2022, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam tawm txawv teb chaws yog qhov siab, nrog rau kev loj hlob ntawm 16.3% hauv lub Tsib Hlis thiab 17.1% hauv Lub Rau Hli.Raws li qhov tshwm sim, kev xa tawm tau nce 12.4 feem pua ​​​​hauv lub quarter thib ob.