Tsis ntev los no, Fitch lub tuam txhab tawm tswv yim - Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI), Benchmark Mineral Intelligence tau tshaj tawm tsab ntawv tshaj tawm kev kwv yees, 2023-2027, qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm lub ntiaj teb hlau ore ntau lawm yuav tsum yog 2.3%, Hauv tsib xyoos dhau los (2017- 2022), qhov ntsuas yog -0.7%.Qhov no yuav pab txhawb cov hlau ore ntau lawm los ntawm 372.8 lab tonnes hauv 2027 piv nrog rau xyoo 2022, tsab ntawv ceeb toom tau hais.
Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, lub nrawm ntawm lub ntiaj teb hlau ore ntau lawm yuav ua kom nrawm dua.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm tau taw qhia tias yav tom ntej thoob ntiaj teb cov hlau ore kev lag luam nce ntxiv yuav yog los ntawm Brazil thiab Australia.Tam sim no, Vale tau nthuav tawm cov phiaj xwm nthuav dav rau lub ntiaj teb sab nraud.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, FMG kuj npaj los nqis peev hauv kev nthuav dav tshiab.Piv txwv suav nrog Iron Choj, uas tab tom nrhiav los ntawm FMG, thiab Gudai Darri, uas tab tom nrhiav los ntawm Rio Tinto.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm hais tias nyob rau hauv peb mus rau plaub xyoos tom ntej no, Tuam Tshoj cov hlau ore ntau lawm yuav nce.Tam sim no, Tuam Tshoj tab tom sim nce qib ntawm tus kheej txaus thiab maj mam txo nws tus kheej los ntawm kev vam khom rau Australian mines.Txoj kev loj hlob ntawm "pob zeb pob zeb phiaj xwm" tau txhawb kev nthuav dav ntawm kev tsim cov lag luam hauv Suav mining, thiab tseem ua rau kev txhim kho kev lag luam txawv teb chaws los ntawm Suav tuam txhab xws li Baowu, xws li Xipo project ntawm Tuam Tshoj Baowu thiab Rio Tinto.Daim ntawv tshaj tawm cia siab tias cov tuam txhab hauv Suav teb yuav tsum tau nqis peev hauv kev lag luam txawv teb chaws hlau ore mines, xws li Simandou mine loj.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm kuj tau kwv yees tias txij xyoo 2027 txog 2032, qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm lub ntiaj teb hlau ore ntau lawm yuav tsum yog -0.1%.Raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom, qhov kev poob qis hauv kev loj hlob tuaj yeem tshwm sim los ntawm cov mines me me kaw thiab txo cov nqi hlau ore ua rau cov miners loj los txo cov peev hauv cov haujlwm tshiab.
Raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom, los ntawm 2023 txog 2027, Australia cov hlau ore ntau lawm yuav loj hlob ntawm qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm 0.2%.Nws tau tshaj tawm tias tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm cov hlau ore hauv Australia yog $ 30 / ton, West Africa yog $ 40 / ton ~ $ 50 / ton, thiab Tuam Tshoj yog $ 90 / ton.Vim hais tias Australia yog nyob rau hauv qab ntawm lub ntiaj teb no hlau ore nqi nkhaus, nws yuav tsum tau muab ib tug noj qab nyob zoo tsis tiv thaiv lub caij nplooj zeeg nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no hlau ore nqi nyob rau hauv ob peb xyoos tom ntej no.
Brazil cov hlau ore ntau lawm yog teem rau rebound nyob rau ob peb xyoos tom ntej no.Raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom, qhov no feem ntau yog vim thaj av qis qis thiab kev khiav hauj lwm cov nqi, ntau qhov project reserves txaus, cov peev txheej, thiab kev muaj koob meej ntawm Suav steelmakers.Daim ntawv tshaj tawm kwv yees tias txij xyoo 2023 txog 2027, Brazil cov hlau ore ntau lawm yuav loj hlob ntawm qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm 3.4%, los ntawm 56.1 lab tons rau 482.9 lab tons hauv ib xyoos.Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau lub sijhawm ntev, kev loj hlob ntawm cov hlau ore ntau lawm hauv Brazil yuav qeeb, thiab qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob yuav tsum yog 1.2% txij xyoo 2027 txog 2032, thiab kev tsim khoom yuav ncav cuag 507.5 lab tons / xyoo hauv 2032.
Tsis tas li ntawd, daim ntawv tshaj tawm kuj tau qhia tias Vale's Serra Norte mine Gelado hlau ore yuav nthuav ntau lawm xyoo no;Txoj haujlwm N3 yuav tsum pib hauv 2024;S11D qhov project twb tau nce ntau lawm hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm xyoo nyiaj txiag, pab txhawb cov hlau ore tso tawm los ntawm 5.8 feem pua ​​​​rau xyoo rau 66.7m tonnes, nrog rau txoj haujlwm xav kom nthuav dav 30m tonnes ib xyoos. .